Prediction Platform Kalshi Disrupts Sports Betting Market, Pressuring Traditional Stocks

Kalshi, the prediction market platform, is reshaping the sports betting landscape with record-breaking trading volumes. Over a single weekend, the platform processed $260 million on Saturday followed by $275 million on Sunday—eclipsing its previous Election Day 2024 peak of $245 million. The surge underscores Kalshi’s accelerating traction as a viable alternative to conventional sportsbooks.

NFL games dominated activity, accounting for 98% of trades despite competing events like the Ryder Cup and MLB playoffs. A single Packers-Cowboys overtime matchup drew $57.2 million in wagers, becoming Kalshi’s most-traded event ever. Analysts estimate the platform now captures 5-10% of total sports betting activity, aided by its legal status in California and Texas—markets where traditional sports betting remains prohibited.

The disruption has not gone unnoticed by investors. Shares of established sports betting operators including DKNG, FLUT, and MGM declined as Kalshi’s growth signals potential market share erosion. The platform’s event-driven model, which allows wagers on discrete outcomes rather than point spreads, appears to be resonating with a new segment of prediction market participants.